Climate Change as a Driver of Migration to the North?




As we witness the first consequences of climate change becoming reality, worries arise about mass migration from areas struck by extreme heat and drought to the Nordic countries. However, whether people in those areas will migrate, and to what degree, depends on many socio-economic and political factors that span a wide range of migration scenarios.

Likewise, the demography and education levels of those potential migrants largely define what their arrival will mean for the destination countries’ economies, welfare states, etc.

This presentation will give an overview of the current state of the research on demography and climate change induced migration. Moreover, it will show initial results from the transdisciplinary FLOW project currently under way at Aalborg University, where those migration scenarios are investigated using geosimulation and machine learning techniques.


People interested in scenarios for the future demographic of Denmark and the other Nordic countries, as well as people interested in the consequences of climate change.

Yderligere uddybning af abstract

The presentation will highlight different migration scenarios currently discussed within the international demographic community in the context of climate change, and what they imply for the Nordic countries. These scenarios are defined at the country level, however.

In the FLOW project, we are investigating scenarios of movement within countries, i.e., where are future migrants likely to move? This depends not only on socio-economic factors, but also on existing communities of a immigrants from a certain country. The presentation will therefore also show how we address this problem with geosimulation and machine learning techniques.

Climate Change as a Driver of Migration to the North?
Aalborg University Copenhagen